The Mosaic Company (MOS), headquartered in Tampa, Florida, manufactures and distributes concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Valued at $9 billion by market cap, the company owns and operates mines that produce key agricultural products like diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate, as well as manufactures phosphate-based animal feed additives under the Biofos and Nexfos brands.

Shares of this leading producer of concentrated phosphate and potash have underperformed the broader market over the past year. MOS has declined 8.6% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 21.8%. However, in 2025, MOS stock is up 14.8%, surpassing the SPX’s 2.7% rise on a YTD basis. 

Narrowing the focus, MOS’ underperformance is apparent compared to iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETF (VEGI). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 3.6% over the past year. However, MOS’ double-digit returns on a YTD basis outshine the ETF’s 7.1% gains over the same time frame. 

Mosaic's underperformance is driven by lower fertilizer prices pressuring sales and margins coupled with production downtime from hurricanes Helene and Milton affecting phosphate volumes. Additionally, delays in Canpotex shipments caused by Canadian rail and port strikes are likely to reduce the company's potash volumes, further dampening its overall performance.

On Nov. 12, MOS shares closed down more than 7% after reporting its Q3 results. Its adjusted EPS of $0.34 missed Wall Street expectations of $0.58. The company’s revenue was $2.8 billion, falling short of Wall Street forecasts of $3.3 billion.

For the current fiscal year, ended in December 2024, analysts expected MOS’ EPS to decline 42.9% to $2.04 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is disappointing. It missed the consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters while beating the forecast on another occasion.

Among the 15 analysts covering MOS stock, the consensus is a “Hold.” That’s based on four “Strong Buy” ratings, 10 “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”

This configuration is less bullish than a month ago, with its overall rating of “Moderate Buy,” consisting five analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”

On Jan. 28, CIBC kept a “Hold” rating on MOS and raised the price target to $32, implying a potential upside of 13.4% from current levels.

The mean price target of $31.93 represents a 13.2% premium to MOS’ current price levels. The Street-high price target of $44 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 56%.